This post is part of the Cursed: How the Resource Curse Manifests in Newfoundland and Labrador project, led by Dr. Lori Lee Oates.
On July 9, 2026, there was an in-person consultation session on the development application of the proposed Bay du Nord project, organized by the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Energy Regulator (C-NLOER). The consultations (in-person and online sessions) were required as part of the development application process. They represented an opportunity for the public in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) to interact with the management of Equinor and ask questions about the proposed development application. The responses of the company to questions from citizens, environmental NGOs, and scholars from Memorial University addressed issues of hiring practices, local contracts, environmental issues, safety, and the arrival of peak oil. It is noteworthy that the Bay du Nord project is running against economic evidence supplied by the International Energy Agency (IEA) that predicts a global decline in the usefulness of oil by 2030.
On safety analysis, the contractor who produced the Concept Safety Analysis document for Equinor (2026:41) observes that, “Climate change may lead to changes in metocean conditions compared to the present basis for the structural design and assessment. An allowance for increases in extreme significant wave height, extreme wind speeds and sea level has been implemented, in line with NORSOK Standard N-003:2017.” That is the only reference to climate change in the whole document. Giving an allowance to climate change does not indicate that the magnitude of an impending climate crisis cannot overshoot the allowance, and there is no assurance that the company has the capacity to withstand the consequences of a failed safety analysis. More importantly, making a lone reference to climate change in a safety analysis is an indication that the company is not seeing climate change as a big problem.
The IEA has predicted that the future of global energy is in renewable technologies. The world, the organization points out, has entered “The Age of Electricity.” Therefore, renewable energy sources now constitute almost 50% of global energy usage, with rapid investment in wind and solar energy projects outpacing the global demand for fossil fuels, as noted by the organization. In the outlook released by the IEA in 2023, the global demand for fossil fuels has been stuck for decades at 80%, and it will reduce to 73% by 2030. The Executive Director of the IEA, Faith Birol, has noted the inevitability of the global transition to clean energy. In a 2023 news release, Birol stated that “Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them.”
![Graph of Electricity Generation by Type in Newfoundland and Labrador [XLSX 21 KB]](https://i0.wp.com/niche-canada.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Electricity-Generation.png?resize=970%2C582&ssl=1)
This outlook for fossil fuels has implications for the Bay Du Nord project and affirms the public’s questions: who will be the customer for the oil if the project reaches first oil in 2031? The Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) in 2022 warned the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador not to build the province’s economic future on the shaky ground of fossil fuels, which the global economy is phasing out. The organization observed that the pathway to success for the province is to shift its heavy reliance on “fossil fuels and carbon-intensive industry” to a “diversified, low-carbon” economy. The trend then showed that “clean growth momentum is evident in every part of Canada, including in Newfoundland and Labrador.” The CCI highlighted a $20 million investment in smart thermostats by Mysa (a company in NL) in 2021; showed an accelerated adoption of new, low-carbon technologies by companies and industries in the province; and revealed more than six companies tapping into “growing markets like industrial decarbonization and low-carbon building technologies.” The CCI also noted that Canada would continue to lose billions of dollars by neglecting climate change. Bay Du Nord oil may not find a favourable market when the proposed first oil is ready in 2031. Also, the prospects of a provincial economy no longer built on the volatile and unsustainable fossil fuel derivatives are the future of the province, not oil investment.
The in-person session failed the test of climate crisis. All the germane questions asked by notable academic researchers and other professionals working on climate research were evaded by the Equinor management team. It is worrisome to note that the oil company only explained the effects of the climate crisis in relation to the facility. In section 11.2.2.4 of the development plan, Equinor-Canada stated the following on climate change:
While the facility is designed for a 20-year production life, during which the climate is not expected to change significantly from current conditions, the design basis accounts for low-probability extreme events. This conservative approach is intended to ensure that the structure remains robust and safe throughout its intended life, even if the actual climate deviates from current projections (2026: 358).
This statement belittles the effects of climate change on the project. Its scope on climate resilience is weak, as it treats “the facility” alone, leaving out the important effects of climate change on the projected volume of oil to be extracted, its marketing, and monetary derivation. The company’s representatives maintained that the effects of climate change will be minimal in 2046, if we follow the twenty-year projection in the statement above. This is against the global projection of 2030 by the IEA.
In one of its publications this year, the Government of Canada recognized the sweeping effects of climate change on people’s lives and on the natural resource sectors. To overcome issues of higher temperatures, extreme weather events, and rising sea levels, the government has agreed to build a strong economy and promote communities that are resilient to the climate crisis. This is evident in the Smart Renewables and Electrification Pathways Program (SREPs) launched in 2021 by Natural Resources Canada, through which $4.5 billion would be spent till 2036 to develop renewable energy technologies. The Bay Du Nord project stands against the mandate and policy directive of Canada to reduce carbon emissions and promote clean growth. If the Bay Du Nord project is approved, it will further worsen the climate crisis, locally and globally. According to the Climate Action Tracker, Canada’s possibility of meeting its net-zero target by 2050 is average, while policies and actions are highly insufficient. The Climate Action Tracker’s conclusion stemmed from the nation’s inability to “curb methane emissions in the oil and fossil gas sector,” though it made progress on implementing policies from the 2030 emissions reduction plan.
One of the unfortunate, negative national actions worsening the climate crisis is the approval of the “Bay Du Nord offshore oil and fossil gas megaproject in 2022,” according to the Climate Action Tracker. The body also noted that Canada “continues to provide financing to fossil fuel companies and infrastructure—including the enormously expensive Trans Mountain pipeline—and is advancing several major LNG projects.”
Finally, the management of Equinor-Canada failed to clearly articulate how the oil project would address diversity and inclusion. Any natural resource extraction project is expected to integrate Indigenous rights and ensure that all marginalized groups have agency in decision-making. It must also incorporate local, community voices and address historical exclusions associated with resource governance in Canada. On these four issues, the oil team only promised to revisit the gaps identified in their development approach and build equitable resource stewardship. Equinor promised to develop “a benefits plan, along with a gender equity and diversity plan, to guide how opportunities are created and shared during the project’s development and operation.” The company also promised renewed commitment to transparency and accountability in life-of-project reporting, and collaboration with the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. These are blanket promises that are not yet developed. The company lacks expert assessment on the ability to address inherent equity, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) issues and policies on resource governance in Canada.
“On these three critical issues of the climate crisis, the unsustainability of fossil fuels, and EDI, the Bay Du Nord oil project should not be developed further.”
The conclusion is that, on these three critical issues of the climate crisis, the unsustainability of fossil fuels, and EDI, the Bay Du Nord oil project should not be developed further. If the project passes the EDI scrutiny, it is purely against climate adaptation and the clean energy plans of Canada and the province for now and the future.
References
Equinor-Canada Limited (2026). Bay du Nord Project Development Plan. https://www.cnloer.ca/wp-content/uploads/BayduNord/BdNDevelopmentPlan.pdf
Equinor-Canada Limited (2026). Bay du Nord Project: Concept Safety Analysis. https://www.cnloer.ca/wp-content/uploads/BayduNord/BdNConceptSafetyAnalysis.pdf
The International Energy Agency (2026). The energy world is set to change significantly by 2030, based on today’s policy settings alone. https://www.iea.org/news/the-energy-world-is-set-to-change-significantly-by-2030-based-on-todays-policy-settings-alone
Obasanjo Joseph Oyedele
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